Improbable-Abacus
0xf49614e63fb15383d4a9b717a1be03ad2410fe79
Improbable-Abacus: +$1.7K on 26 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 62% (95% range 43%–78%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Profit
+$1.7K
return +3.1%
Settled bets
26
$54K staked
Won
61.5%
95% range 43%–78%
Mostly bets on
esports
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 22 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by period
- Aug 20 – Sep 6
- −$1.3K
- Sep 6 – Sep 23
- +$3.0K
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −9.2%
(2,094 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20 | BUY paiN Gaming
@ 99¢
LoL: paiN Gaming vs RED Canids - Game 1 Winner |
LoL: paiN Gaming vs RED Canids - Game 1 Winner | $2.0K |
| Sep 19 | BUY Invictus Gaming
@ 50¢
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 3 Winner |
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 3 Winner | $2.0K |
| Sep 17 | BUY Top Esports
@ 45¢
LoL: Top Esports vs Invictus Gaming - Game 1 Winner |
LoL: Top Esports vs Invictus Gaming - Game 1 Winner | $2.0K |
| Sep 13 | BUY FlyQuest
@ 49¢
LoL: Sentinels vs FlyQuest - Game 3 Winner |
LoL: Sentinels vs FlyQuest - Game 3 Winner | $2.0K |
| Sep 12 | BUY Cloud9
@ 80¢
LoL: Cloud9 vs Shopify Rebellion - Game 3 Winner |
LoL: Cloud9 vs Shopify Rebellion - Game 3 Winner | $5.0K |
| Sep 12 | BUY Movistar KOI
@ 41¢
LoL: Team Vitality vs Movistar KOI (BO5) - LEC Playoffs |
LoL: Team Vitality vs Movistar KOI (BO5) - LEC Playoffs | $2.0K |
| Sep 12 | BUY Movistar KOI
@ 41¢
LoL: Team Vitality vs Movistar KOI (BO5) - LEC Playoffs |
LoL: Team Vitality vs Movistar KOI (BO5) - LEC Playoffs | $1.9K |
| Sep 12 | BUY LOS
@ 90¢
LoL: LOS vs FURIA Esports - Game 1 Winner |
LoL: LOS vs FURIA Esports - Game 1 Winner | $1.8K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.