Weird-Punishment
0xf3b04dd038fcf191692927c0aa5a38018ea323a1
Weird-Punishment: +$1.6K on 11 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 82% (95% range 52%–95%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Profit
+$1.6K
return +1.7%
Settled bets
11
$91K staked
Won
81.8%
95% range 52%–95%
Mostly bets on
sports
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 11 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by 2 weeks
- Aug 20 – Sep 4
- +$4.0K
- Sep 4 – Sep 20
- −$1.7K
- Sep 20 – Oct 5
- −$674
Settled profit in each two-week period since Aug 20. A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0%
(2,053 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 5 | BUY Daniil Medvedev
@ 33¢
China Open: Novak Djokovic vs Daniil Medvedev |
China Open: Novak Djokovic vs Daniil Medvedev | $1.0K |
| Oct 1 | BUY Carlos Alcaraz
@ 86¢
Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alex Michelsen |
Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alex Michelsen | $2.0K |
| Sep 12 | BUY Alexander Zverev
@ 58¢
US Open ATP: Alexander Zverev vs Ben Shelton |
US Open ATP: Alexander Zverev vs Ben Shelton | $10K |
| Sep 6 | BUY Alexander Zverev
@ 89¢
US Open ATP: Alexander Zverev vs Luciano Darderi |
US Open ATP: Alexander Zverev vs Luciano Darderi | $10K |
| Sep 5 | BUY Carlos Alcaraz
@ 84¢
US Open ATP: Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz |
US Open ATP: Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz | $20K |
| Sep 5 | BUY Alexander Zverev
@ 83¢
US Open ATP: Alexander Zverev vs Alejandro Tabilo |
US Open ATP: Alexander Zverev vs Alejandro Tabilo | $5.0K |
| Sep 5 | BUY Taylor Fritz
@ 87¢
US Open ATP: Taylor Fritz vs Francisco Cerundolo |
US Open ATP: Taylor Fritz vs Francisco Cerundolo | $15K |
| Sep 3 | BUY Alexander Blockx
@ 83¢
US Open ATP: Alexander Blockx vs Marco Trungelliti |
US Open ATP: Alexander Blockx vs Marco Trungelliti | $10K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.