Distant-Tunnel

0xf1528f12e645462c344799b62b1b421a6a4c64aa

Polymarket

Can't tell from luck Check it on Polymarket ↗

Distant-Tunnel: +$13K on 22 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 73% (95% range 52%–87%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.

Profit
+$13K
return +3.7%
Settled bets
22
$341K staked
Won
72.7%
95% range 52%–87%
Mostly bets on
other

Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 21 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Profit by period
Aug 20 – Sep 6
+$9.6K
Sep 6 – Sep 23
+$8.7K
Sep 23 – Oct 11
−$5.6K
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −9.2% (2,094 positions).

Latest captured bets

WhenBetMarketSize
Oct 3 BUY SMU @ 99.9¢
Boston College vs. SMU
Boston College vs. SMU $4.0K
Oct 3 BUY Texas A&M @ 84¢
Arkansas vs. Texas A&M
Arkansas vs. Texas A&M $1.8K
Oct 1 SELL Carlos Alcaraz @ 96¢
Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alex Michelsen
Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alex Michelsen $5.9K
Oct 1 BUY Carlos Alcaraz @ 91¢
Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alex Michelsen
Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alex Michelsen $7.1K
Sep 27 BUY No @ 89¢
Will Greece win on 2026-09-27?
Will Greece win on 2026-09-27? $16K
Sep 26 BUY Arkansas State @ 70¢
Kennesaw State vs. Arkansas State
Kennesaw State vs. Arkansas State $31K
Sep 25 BUY Philadelphia Phillies @ 62¢
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Philadelphia Phillies $5.0K
Sep 24 BUY No @ 88¢
Will Türkiye win on 2026-09-25?
Will Türkiye win on 2026-09-25? $8.4K

Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.

About this data · run 1791710133, computed 2026-10-11 09:15 UTC
Source: hopium_compute run 1791710133 (PG metrics_*)
  • Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
  • Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
  • latest window has the most unresolved markets
  • Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
  • fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed