Loathsome-Decade

0xecb14ac6e9ca447ce2f2912e6217b43d7b655da3

Polymarket

Can't tell from luck Check it on Polymarket ↗

Loathsome-Decade: +$8.2K on 17 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 47% (95% range 26%–69%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.

Profit
+$8.2K
return +17.6%
Settled bets
17
$47K staked
Won
47.1%
95% range 26%–69%
Mostly bets on
sports

Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 16 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Profit by period
Aug 20 – Sep 6
+$1.8K
Sep 6 – Sep 23
+$574
Sep 23 – Oct 11
+$5.8K
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −9.2% (2,094 positions).

Latest captured bets

WhenBetMarketSize
Oct 4 BUY Dolphins @ 18¢
Dolphins vs. Vikings
Dolphins vs. Vikings $1.4K
Oct 4 BUY Texans @ 58¢
Cowboys vs. Texans
Cowboys vs. Texans $4.8K
Oct 3 BUY No @ 28¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? $2.8K
Oct 3 BUY Yes @ 28¢
Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?
Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election? $2.1K
Oct 3 BUY Yes @ 44¢
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? $1.0K
Sep 27 BUY Rams @ 55¢
Rams vs. Broncos
Rams vs. Broncos $4.6K
Sep 27 BUY Over @ 52¢
Raiders vs. Saints: O/U 43.5
Raiders vs. Saints: O/U 43.5 $4.4K
Sep 20 BUY Titans @ 26¢
Eagles vs. Titans
Eagles vs. Titans $3.0K

Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.

About this data · run 1791710133, computed 2026-10-11 09:15 UTC
Source: hopium_compute run 1791710133 (PG metrics_*)
  • Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
  • Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
  • latest window has the most unresolved markets
  • Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
  • fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed