Tense-Hometown

0xeb739f5e4f45b0b68688bb252f08327bc01653b0

Polymarket

Can't tell from luck Check it on Polymarket ↗
Profit
−$44K
return −19.3%
Settled bets
84
$229K staked
Won
38.1%
95% range 28%–49%
Mostly bets on
sports

Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 64 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Aug 20 – Sep 4: +$20K Sep 4 – Sep 20: −$66K Sep 20 – Oct 5: +$1.4K
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0% (2,053 positions).

Latest captured bets

WhenBetMarketSize
Sep 29 Bought Yes at 48¢
Will Harrogate Town AFC win on 2026-09-29?
Will Harrogate Town AFC win on 2026-09-29? $1.3K
Sep 19 Sold Yes at 99.9¢
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-09-19?
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-09-19? $6.1K
Sep 19 Bought Yes at 18¢
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-09-19?
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-09-19? $1.1K
Sep 19 Sold Yes at 99.9¢
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-09-19?
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-09-19? $4.5K
Sep 19 Bought Yes at 40¢
Will Kawasaki Frontale win on 2026-09-19?
Will Kawasaki Frontale win on 2026-09-19? $1.1K
Sep 18 Bought Yes at 39¢
Will Ayutthaya United FC win on 2026-09-18?
Will Ayutthaya United FC win on 2026-09-18? $1.5K
Sep 18 Bought Yes at 36¢
Will FC Zhenis win on 2026-09-18?
Will FC Zhenis win on 2026-09-18? $1.1K
Sep 15 Bought Yes at 49¢
Will Wadi Degla SC win on 2026-09-15?
Will Wadi Degla SC win on 2026-09-15? $1.3K

Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.

Source: hopium_compute run 1791223421 (PG metrics_*) · computed 2026-10-05 18:03 UTC
  • Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
  • Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
  • latest window has the most unresolved markets
  • Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
  • fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed