Jumbo-Permafrost
0xeb692293f3373f9dc3e3c93cbab711540e05cfd1
Jumbo-Permafrost: −$18K on 68 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 57% (95% range 46%–68%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Profit
−$18K
return −13.9%
Settled bets
68
$133K staked
Won
57.4%
95% range 46%–68%
Mostly bets on
esports
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 60 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by 2 weeks
- Aug 20 – Sep 4
- −$13K
- Sep 4 – Sep 20
- −$5.9K
- Sep 20 – Oct 5
- +$208
Settled profit in each two-week period since Aug 20. A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0%
(2,053 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9 | BUY Aurora
@ 68¢
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner |
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner | $1.3K |
| Oct 9 | SELL PARIVISION
@ 99.9¢
Dota 2: 1win vs PARIVISION - Game 2 Winner |
Dota 2: 1win vs PARIVISION - Game 2 Winner | $2.4K |
| Oct 9 | BUY PARIVISION
@ 87¢
Dota 2: 1win vs PARIVISION - Game 2 Winner |
Dota 2: 1win vs PARIVISION - Game 2 Winner | $2.1K |
| Oct 9 | BUY Aurora
@ 95¢
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner |
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner | $2.2K |
| Oct 9 | BUY Team Spirit
@ 53¢
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner |
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner | $1.2K |
| Oct 9 | BUY Team Spirit
@ 53¢
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner |
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner | $1.2K |
| Oct 8 | SELL PARIVISION
@ 99.9¢
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner |
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner | $3.0K |
| Oct 8 | BUY Aurora
@ 85¢
Dota 2: Aurora vs 1win - Game 2 Winner |
Dota 2: Aurora vs 1win - Game 2 Winner | $3.0K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.