Yawning-Chicken

0xe91171f655be1568e4c63f29663c0028649e3d4e

Polymarket

Worse than the odds Check it on Polymarket ↗
Profit
−$103K
return −15.9%
Settled bets
216
$649K staked
Won
62.0%
95% range 55%–68%
Mostly bets on
other

Skill or luck? Worse than the odds. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 195 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Aug 20 – Sep 4: −$37K Sep 4 – Sep 20: −$26K Sep 20 – Oct 5: −$40K
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0% (2,053 positions).

Latest captured bets

WhenBetMarketSize
Oct 7 Bought Shopify Rebellion at 80¢
LoL: GAM Esports vs Shopify Rebellion - Game 1 Winner
LoL: GAM Esports vs Shopify Rebellion - Game 1 Winner $1.4K
Oct 7 Bought Darja Suvirdjonkova at 57¢
W15 Maanshan: Anna Yang vs Darja Suvirdjonkova
W15 Maanshan: Anna Yang vs Darja Suvirdjonkova $6.2K
Oct 7 Bought Darja Suvirdjonkova at 54¢
W15 Maanshan: Anna Yang vs Darja Suvirdjonkova
W15 Maanshan: Anna Yang vs Darja Suvirdjonkova $1.7K
Oct 7 Bought Darja Suvirdjonkova at 51¢
W15 Maanshan: Anna Yang vs Darja Suvirdjonkova
W15 Maanshan: Anna Yang vs Darja Suvirdjonkova $2.3K
Oct 6 Bought Over at 81¢
St. Vincent and the Grenadines vs. Sint Maarten: O/U 4.5
St. Vincent and the Grenadines vs. Sint Maarten: O/U 4.5 $1.1K
Oct 6 Bought Jay Clarke at 15¢
Palermo: Jay Clarke vs Gabriele Piraino
Palermo: Jay Clarke vs Gabriele Piraino $1.8K
Oct 6 Bought M80 at 47¢
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs M80 - Map 2 Winner
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs M80 - Map 2 Winner $1.3K
Oct 5 Bought Under at 98¢
Northern Ireland vs. Georgia: O/U 0.5
Northern Ireland vs. Georgia: O/U 0.5 $5.5K

Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.

Source: hopium_compute run 1791223421 (PG metrics_*) · computed 2026-10-05 18:03 UTC
  • Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
  • Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
  • latest window has the most unresolved markets
  • Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
  • fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed