All-Peasant-Drug
0xe9076a87c5ed90ef16e6fe6529c943baeca0cff6
All-Peasant-Drug: −$5.1K on 891 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 48% (95% range 45%–52%). Skill or luck: worse than the odds.
Profit
−$5.1K
return −0.2%
Settled bets
891
$2.44M staked
Won
48.3%
95% range 45%–52%
Mostly bets on
politics/macro
Skill or luck? Worse than the odds. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 576 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by period
- Aug 20 – Sep 6
- −$72K
- Sep 6 – Sep 23
- +$121K
- Sep 23 – Oct 11
- −$54K
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −9.2%
(2,094 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11 | BUY Yes
@ 59¢
FK LNZ Cherkasy leading at halftime? |
FK LNZ Cherkasy leading at halftime? | $1.1K |
| Oct 11 | SELL Katie Volynets
@ 74¢
Wuhan Tennis Open, Qualification: Camila Osorio vs Katie Volynets |
Wuhan Tennis Open, Qualification: Camila Osorio vs Katie Volynets | $1.1K |
| Oct 10 | BUY No
@ 97¢
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 2 - 2 Le Mans FC? |
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 2 - 2 Le Mans FC? | $1.7K |
| Oct 10 | SELL Vitality
@ 98¢
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Vitality (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffs |
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Vitality (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffs | $4.0K |
| Oct 10 | BUY Aurora
@ 75¢
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner |
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner | $1.3K |
| Oct 10 | BUY Aurora Gaming
@ 87¢
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner |
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner | $5.8K |
| Oct 10 | SELL No
@ 79¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 by December 31, 2026? |
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 by December 31, 2026? | $1.1K |
| Oct 10 | SELL Botic van de Zandschulp
@ 93¢
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Alex Michelsen |
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Alex Michelsen | $1.2K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.