Serene-Short

0xe85e62ba4b8e7ad434838eb9a1b561ee9f770f89

Skill vs luck

Serene-Short on Polymarket: 1 settled bet · won 100% (95% range 21%–100%) · profit +$7.8K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned +1.3% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 29, 2026.

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Cite: Hopium Games, “Serene-Short: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 29, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0xe85e62ba4b8e7ad434838eb9a1b561ee9f770f89. Data CC BY 4.0.

Polymarket

Too few bets Check it on Polymarket ↗

Serene-Short: +$7.8K on 1 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 100% (95% range 21%–100%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.

Profit
+$7.8K
return +78.4%
Settled bets
1
$10K staked
Won
100.0%
95% range 21%–100%
Mostly bets on
sports

Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 1 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Profit by period
Oct 15 – Oct 29
+$7.8K
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made +1.3% (2,530 positions).

Latest captured bets

WhenBetMarketSize
Oct 28 BUY Heat @ 56¢
Heat vs. Hawks
 Heat vs. Hawks ↗ $10K
Oct 13 BUY Yes @ 91¢
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
 Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? ↗ $7.0K

All 2 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.

About this data · run 1793257219, computed 2026-10-29 07:00 UTC
Source: hopium_compute run 1793257219 (PG metrics_*)
  • Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
  • Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
  • latest window has the most unresolved markets
  • Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
  • fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed