Frivolous-Fiction
0xe74d4976e5e034182d708a3b9df602e72d4722fd
Frivolous-Fiction: −$653 on 2 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 50% (95% range 10%–91%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Profit
−$653
return −51.7%
Settled bets
2
$1.3K staked
Won
50.0%
95% range 10%–91%
Mostly bets on
other
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 1 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by 2 weeks
- Sep 4 – Sep 20
- −$653
Settled profit in each two-week period since Aug 20. A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0%
(2,053 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1 | SELL No
@ 57¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31? |
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31? | $1.0K |
| Oct 1 | BUY No
@ 49¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31? |
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31? | $1.4K |
| Sep 24 | SELL Yes
@ 62¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? |
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? | $2.3K |
| Sep 14 | SELL No
@ 46¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31? |
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31? | $1.6K |
| Sep 9 | SELL No
@ 64¢
LAPTOP FDV above $1B one day after launch? |
LAPTOP FDV above $1B one day after launch? | $2.5K |
| Sep 9 | BUY Yes
@ 63¢
LAPTOP FDV above $500M one day after launch? |
LAPTOP FDV above $500M one day after launch? | $1.3K |
| Sep 4 | BUY No
@ 42¢
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? |
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? | $3.0K |
All 7 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.