Calm-Latte
Skill vs luck
Calm-Latte on Polymarket: 8 settled bets · won 88% (95% range 53%–98%) · profit −$1.9K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned +2.2% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Nov 2, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Calm-Latte: Polymarket record”, as of Nov 2, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0xe5714557d7e870942af0eaed188f1620fa33f17b. Data CC BY 4.0.
Calm-Latte: −$1.9K on 8 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 88% (95% range 53%–98%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 8 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Oct 18 – Nov 2
- −$1.9K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1 | BUY No
@ 99¢
1win FDV above $70M one day after launch? |
1win FDV above $70M one day after launch? | $3.8K |
| Nov 1 | BUY No @ 95¢ | Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? ↗ | $2.4K |
| Nov 1 | BUY No @ 73¢ | Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? ↗ | $1.1K |
| Nov 1 | BUY No @ 74¢ | Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? ↗ | $1.9K |
| Oct 31 | BUY Yes @ 71¢ | 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House ↗ | $1.8K |
| Oct 31 | SELL Yes @ 99¢ | Will 1win launch a token by October 31, 2026? ↗ | $4.5K |
| Oct 31 | SELL Yes @ 99¢ | Will 1win launch a token by October 31, 2026? ↗ | $9.9K |
| Oct 31 | BUY Yes @ 97¢ | Will 1win launch a token by October 31, 2026? ↗ | $11K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.