Rusty-Reminder
0xe07744c53c273de2acfd485a5212553bced6f5ee
Rusty-Reminder: −$18K on 31 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 55% (95% range 38%–71%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Profit
−$18K
return −13.4%
Settled bets
31
$137K staked
Won
54.8%
95% range 38%–71%
Mostly bets on
sports
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 30 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by 2 weeks
- Aug 20 – Sep 4
- +$377
- Sep 4 – Sep 20
- −$17K
- Sep 20 – Oct 5
- −$1.4K
Settled profit in each two-week period since Aug 20. A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0%
(2,053 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9 | BUY Yannick Hanfmann
@ 31¢
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Yannick Hanfmann vs Frances Tiafoe |
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Yannick Hanfmann vs Frances Tiafoe | $1.9K |
| Oct 9 | BUY Ugo Humbert
@ 39¢
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Arthur Gea vs Ugo Humbert |
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Arthur Gea vs Ugo Humbert | $2.5K |
| Oct 8 | BUY Bernard Tomic
@ 29¢
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Bernard Tomic vs Matteo Arnaldi |
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Bernard Tomic vs Matteo Arnaldi | $1.2K |
| Oct 8 | BUY Camilo Ugo Carabelli
@ 39¢
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Ilia Simakin |
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Ilia Simakin | $2.8K |
| Oct 6 | BUY New York Yankees
@ 53¢
New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays |
New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays | $4.8K |
| Oct 6 | SELL Tampa Bay Rays
@ 44¢
New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays |
New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays | $1.6K |
| Oct 6 | BUY Tampa Bay Rays
@ 43¢
New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays |
New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays | $1.6K |
| Oct 2 | BUY Atlanta Braves
@ 86¢
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves |
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves | $7.8K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.