Sociable-Product
0xe033e9d4a0e8b30c417f3f7abcb029bc695940a5
Sociable-Product: −$55K on 3 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 33% (95% range 6%–79%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Profit
−$55K
return −484.6%
Settled bets
3
$11K staked
Won
33.3%
95% range 6%–79%
Mostly bets on
politics/macro
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 2 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by 2 weeks
- Aug 20 – Sep 4
- −$56K
- Sep 4 – Sep 20
- +$1.1K
Settled profit in each two-week period since Aug 20. A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0%
(2,053 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2 | BUY Yes
@ 74¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting? |
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting? | $3.8K |
| Oct 1 | SELL Yes
@ 74¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting? |
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting? | $5.4K |
| Oct 1 | SELL Yes
@ 74¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting? |
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting? | $5.5K |
| Oct 1 | BUY Yes
@ 34¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? |
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? | $2.2K |
| Sep 30 | BUY Yes
@ 75¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting? |
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting? | $6.2K |
| Sep 28 | BUY Yes
@ 70¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting? |
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting? | $70K |
| Sep 22 | BUY Yes
@ 69¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting? |
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting? | $14K |
| Sep 16 | SELL Yes
@ 35¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? |
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? | $7.9K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.