Unwitting-Raid
0xde5a8b92f34439ac875ed1e9081a46f5e8a22251
Unwitting-Raid: −$199 on 3 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 67% (95% range 21%–94%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Profit
−$199
return −5.4%
Settled bets
3
$3.7K staked
Won
66.7%
95% range 21%–94%
Mostly bets on
other
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 2 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by period
- Aug 20 – Sep 6
- −$1.7K
- Sep 6 – Sep 23
- +$1.2K
- Sep 23 – Oct 11
- +$276
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −9.2%
(2,094 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 27 | BUY Yes
@ 88¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30? |
US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30? | $2.0K |
| Sep 24 | SELL Yes
@ 22¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | $1.1K |
| Sep 24 | BUY Yes
@ 22¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | $1.1K |
| Sep 23 | BUY Yes
@ 34¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? |
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | $1.4K |
| Sep 16 | SELL No
@ 11¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? |
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | $1.2K |
| Sep 4 | BUY No
@ 49¢
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting? |
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting? | $1.7K |
| Aug 26 | SELL Yes
@ 12¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? |
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? | $1.2K |
| Aug 23 | BUY Yes
@ 52¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? |
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | $1.5K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.