Roasted-Expression
Skill vs luck
Roasted-Expression on Polymarket: 6 settled bets · won 33% (95% range 10%–70%) · profit −$19K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −10.4% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 27, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Roasted-Expression: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 27, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0xdd225a03cd7ed89e3931906c67c75ab31cf89ef1. Data CC BY 4.0.
Roasted-Expression: −$19K on 6 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 33% (95% range 10%–70%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 5 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Aug 20 – Sep 6
- −$15K
- Oct 10 – Oct 27
- −$4.4K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 26 | BUY Yes
@ 95¢
Will Rodri finish 4th in the 2026 Ballon d'Or? |
Will Rodri finish 4th in the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | $1.3K |
| Oct 26 | BUY Yes @ 15¢ | Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? ↗ | $1.2K |
| Oct 26 | BUY No @ 21¢ | Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? ↗ | $1.2K |
| Oct 26 | BUY No @ 20¢ | Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? ↗ | $1.0K |
| Oct 26 | SELL Yes @ 80¢ | Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? ↗ | $4.0K |
| Oct 25 | BUY No @ 77¢ | Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? ↗ | $182K |
All 6 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?