Same-Kidney
0xdaef2be2a19ad331737d06545f85615b094554e9
Same-Kidney: +$59K on 46 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 59% (95% range 44%–72%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Profit
+$59K
return +24.4%
Settled bets
46
$242K staked
Won
58.7%
95% range 44%–72%
Mostly bets on
esports
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 46 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by 2 weeks
- Aug 20 – Sep 4
- −$4.4K
- Sep 4 – Sep 20
- +$27K
- Sep 20 – Oct 5
- +$37K
Settled profit in each two-week period since Aug 20. A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0%
(2,053 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9 | BUY Cowboys
@ 36¢
Buccaneers vs. Cowboys |
Buccaneers vs. Cowboys | $1.8K |
| Oct 8 | BUY Sam Houston
@ 50¢
Spread: Liberty (-13.5) |
Spread: Liberty (-13.5) | $6.5K |
| Oct 8 | BUY UTSA
@ 49¢
Spread: UTSA (-6.5) |
Spread: UTSA (-6.5) | $1.5K |
| Oct 7 | BUY FlyQuest
@ 65¢
LoL: FlyQuest vs Shopify Rebellion - Game 1 Winner |
LoL: FlyQuest vs Shopify Rebellion - Game 1 Winner | $1.1K |
| Oct 7 | BUY FlyQuest
@ 74¢
LoL: GAM Esports vs FlyQuest - Game 2 Winner |
LoL: GAM Esports vs FlyQuest - Game 2 Winner | $1.7K |
| Oct 6 | BUY JD Gaming
@ 56¢
LoL: JD Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner |
LoL: JD Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner | $1.5K |
| Oct 6 | BUY LGD Gaming
@ 45¢
LoL: JD Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner |
LoL: JD Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner | $1.3K |
| Oct 6 | BUY RED Canids
@ 24¢
LoL: Team Vitality vs RED Canids - Game 1 Winner |
LoL: Team Vitality vs RED Canids - Game 1 Winner | $1.0K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.