Irresponsible-Autumn
0xd9e0aaca471f489be338fd0f91a26e8669a805f2
Irresponsible-Autumn: −$14K on 80 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 70% (95% range 59%–79%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Profit
−$14K
return −8.8%
Settled bets
80
$160K staked
Won
70.0%
95% range 59%–79%
Mostly bets on
sports
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 80 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by period
- Aug 20 – Sep 6
- −$12K
- Sep 6 – Sep 23
- −$2.0K
- Sep 23 – Oct 11
- +$154
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −9.2%
(2,094 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10 | BUY Qinwen Zheng
@ 98¢
China Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Elise Mertens |
China Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Elise Mertens | $1.6K |
| Oct 10 | BUY Casper Ruud
@ 96¢
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Yunchaokete Bu vs Casper Ruud |
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Yunchaokete Bu vs Casper Ruud | $1.5K |
| Oct 9 | BUY Karen Khachanov
@ 86¢
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Karen Khachanov vs Arthur Fery |
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Karen Khachanov vs Arthur Fery | $1.4K |
| Oct 9 | BUY Buccaneers
@ 85¢
Buccaneers vs. Cowboys |
Buccaneers vs. Cowboys | $1.6K |
| Oct 9 | BUY Cowboys
@ 80¢
Buccaneers vs. Cowboys |
Buccaneers vs. Cowboys | $1.2K |
| Oct 8 | BUY Tomas Barrios
@ 75¢
Antofagasta: Miguel Tobon vs Tomas Barrios |
Antofagasta: Miguel Tobon vs Tomas Barrios | $1.2K |
| Oct 8 | BUY Tomas Barrios
@ 99¢
Antofagasta: Miguel Tobon vs Tomas Barrios |
Antofagasta: Miguel Tobon vs Tomas Barrios | $1.2K |
| Oct 8 | BUY Simona Waltert
@ 99¢
Samsun: Simona Waltert vs Linda Klimovicova |
Samsun: Simona Waltert vs Linda Klimovicova | $1.1K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.