Violet-Mercury
Skill vs luck
Violet-Mercury on Polymarket: 4 settled bets · won 50% (95% range 15%–85%) · profit −$1.4K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned +2.1% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 31, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Violet-Mercury: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 31, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0xd529dd5115ea1d2835f1af6ac80f10117e59f0d4. Data CC BY 4.0.
Violet-Mercury: −$1.4K on 4 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 50% (95% range 15%–85%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 1 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Oct 16 – Oct 31
- −$1.4K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 30 | SELL Mavericks @ 32¢ | Rockets vs. Mavericks ↗ | $1.3K |
| Oct 30 | SELL Lakers @ 55¢ | Lakers vs. Warriors ↗ | $1.8K |
| Oct 30 | SELL Wizards @ 52¢ | Hornets vs. Wizards ↗ | $1.5K |
| Oct 26 | BUY No @ 76¢ | Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? ↗ | $3.5K |
All 4 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.