Authentic-Vernacular-Rust
0xd4feee98bb697465edd268650baa43aca0dcc916
Authentic-Vernacular-Rust: −$61K on 24 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 38% (95% range 21%–57%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Profit
−$61K
return −42.8%
Settled bets
24
$142K staked
Won
37.5%
95% range 21%–57%
Mostly bets on
other
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 20 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by 2 weeks
- Sep 4 – Sep 20
- −$57K
- Sep 20 – Oct 5
- −$3.7K
Settled profit in each two-week period since Aug 20. A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0%
(2,053 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1 | BUY Chicago Cubs
@ 45¢
Chicago Cubs vs. San Diego Padres |
Chicago Cubs vs. San Diego Padres | $2.1K |
| Sep 29 | BUY Chicago White Sox
@ 47¢
Chicago White Sox vs. Houston Astros |
Chicago White Sox vs. Houston Astros | $1.1K |
| Sep 21 | BUY Giants
@ 27¢
Giants vs. Rams |
Giants vs. Rams | $2.8K |
| Sep 18 | BUY magic
@ 35¢
Counter-Strike: magic vs MIBR (BO3) - StarLadder StarSeries Playoffs |
Counter-Strike: magic vs MIBR (BO3) - StarLadder StarSeries Playoffs | $1.5K |
| Sep 15 | BUY Pittsburgh Pirates
@ 35¢
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates |
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates | $13K |
| Sep 15 | BUY Andre Ilagan
@ 67¢
Tiburon: Bryce Nakashima vs Andre Ilagan |
Tiburon: Bryce Nakashima vs Andre Ilagan | $3.1K |
| Sep 15 | SELL Xiaodi You
@ 36¢
Sao Paulo Open: Xiaodi You vs Alina Charaeva |
Sao Paulo Open: Xiaodi You vs Alina Charaeva | $1.6K |
| Sep 15 | BUY Yes
@ 57¢
Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-09-15? |
Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-09-15? | $23K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.