Thunderous-Authorisation-Snarl

0xd3a0b4e941b557d33a8efd5a51c581e7c79cf136

Polymarket

Worse than the odds Check it on Polymarket ↗
Profit
−$18K
return −17.3%
Settled bets
20
$103K staked
Won
40.0%
95% range 22%–61%
Mostly bets on
sports

Skill or luck? Worse than the odds. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 16 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Sep 4 – Sep 20: +$34K Sep 20 – Oct 5: −$52K
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0% (2,053 positions).

Latest captured bets

WhenBetMarketSize
Oct 5 Bought No at 23¢
Will Italy win on 2026-10-05?
Will Italy win on 2026-10-05? $1.4K
Oct 5 Bought No at 23¢
Will Italy win on 2026-10-05?
Will Italy win on 2026-10-05? $1.2K
Oct 4 Bought Broncos at 50¢
Broncos vs. 49ers
Broncos vs. 49ers $5.0K
Oct 3 Bought No at 50¢
Will Finland win on 2026-10-03?
Will Finland win on 2026-10-03? $2.0K
Oct 3 Bought No at 60¢
Will Finland win on 2026-10-03?
Will Finland win on 2026-10-03? $1.3K
Sep 29 Bought No at 25¢
Will England win on 2026-09-29?
Will England win on 2026-09-29? $6.4K
Sep 27 Bought Vikings at 73¢
Vikings vs. Buccaneers
Vikings vs. Buccaneers $14K
Sep 27 Bought Colts at 77¢
Texans vs. Colts
Texans vs. Colts $5.6K

Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.

Source: hopium_compute run 1791223421 (PG metrics_*) · computed 2026-10-05 18:03 UTC
  • Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
  • Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
  • latest window has the most unresolved markets
  • Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
  • fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed