New-Sickness
0xd3911bd5e070c9ad9a9519c966347802d8f3b109
New-Sickness: −$47K on 160 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 64% (95% range 56%–71%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Profit
−$47K
return −6.8%
Settled bets
160
$688K staked
Won
63.7%
95% range 56%–71%
Mostly bets on
esports
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 144 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by 2 weeks
- Aug 20 – Sep 4
- −$15K
- Sep 4 – Sep 20
- −$56K
- Sep 20 – Oct 5
- +$23K
Settled profit in each two-week period since Aug 20. A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0%
(2,053 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 7 | BUY Shopify Rebellion
@ 38¢
LoL: FlyQuest vs Shopify Rebellion (BO3) - Demacia Cup Global Invitational Group Stage |
LoL: FlyQuest vs Shopify Rebellion (BO3) - Demacia Cup Global Invitational Group Stage | $1.1K |
| Oct 7 | BUY Shopify Rebellion
@ 31¢
LoL: FlyQuest vs Shopify Rebellion - Game 2 Winner |
LoL: FlyQuest vs Shopify Rebellion - Game 2 Winner | $1.6K |
| Oct 7 | BUY Shopify Rebellion
@ 65¢
LoL: GAM Esports vs Shopify Rebellion - Game 1 Winner |
LoL: GAM Esports vs Shopify Rebellion - Game 1 Winner | $2.9K |
| Oct 6 | BUY TLN Pirates
@ 80¢
LoL: TLN Pirates vs Bushido Wildcats - Game 3 Winner |
LoL: TLN Pirates vs Bushido Wildcats - Game 3 Winner | $2.3K |
| Oct 6 | BUY England
@ 71¢
Spread: England (-1.5) |
Spread: England (-1.5) | $10K |
| Oct 6 | BUY JD Gaming
@ 52¢
LoL: JD Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner |
LoL: JD Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner | $2.9K |
| Oct 6 | BUY JD Gaming
@ 68¢
LoL: JD Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner |
LoL: JD Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner | $2.4K |
| Oct 6 | BUY Team Vitality
@ 81¢
LoL: Team Vitality vs RED Canids - Game 1 Winner |
LoL: Team Vitality vs RED Canids - Game 1 Winner | $6.7K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.