Perfect-Variability
Skill vs luck
Perfect-Variability on Polymarket: 4 settled bets · won 75% (95% range 30%–95%) · profit +$2.5K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned +2.2% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Nov 2, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Perfect-Variability: Polymarket record”, as of Nov 2, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0xd30017b2f98265f77632242b0f278bc3bf4430ad. Data CC BY 4.0.
Perfect-Variability: +$2.5K on 4 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 75% (95% range 30%–95%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 2 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Sep 3 – Sep 18
- +$1.5K
- Oct 18 – Nov 2
- +$986
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 30 | BUY Yes @ 96¢ | Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $60M? ↗ | $4.6K |
| Oct 30 | SELL Yes
@ 99.9¢
Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $30M? |
Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $30M? | $4.1K |
| Oct 30 | BUY Yes
@ 71¢
1win FDV above $45M one day after launch? |
1win FDV above $45M one day after launch? | $1.9K |
| Sep 18 | SELL Yes @ 20¢ | Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? ↗ | $1.5K |
All 4 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.