Physical-Ideal
0xd17e2edc06063207c186f8089a513a04046b7a0c
Physical-Ideal: −$5.4K on 4 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 50% (95% range 15%–85%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Profit
−$5.4K
return −111.8%
Settled bets
4
$4.8K staked
Won
50.0%
95% range 15%–85%
Mostly bets on
crypto
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 2 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by period
- Sep 7 – Sep 25
- −$2.2K
- Sep 25 – Oct 13
- −$3.2K
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −9.6%
(2,332 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11 | SELL Commanders
@ 47¢
Spread: Commanders (-3.5) |
Spread: Commanders (-3.5) | $2.0K |
| Oct 11 | SELL Over
@ 48¢
Colts vs. Steelers: O/U 42.5 |
Colts vs. Steelers: O/U 42.5 | $4.8K |
| Sep 7 | BUY Down
@ 79¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 7, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET |
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 7, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET | $1.1K |
| Sep 7 | BUY Down
@ 67¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 7, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET |
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 7, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET | $1.1K |
| Sep 7 | BUY Up
@ 99¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 7, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET |
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 7, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET | $2.6K |
All 5 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.