Trivial-Ravioli

0xccd81fbd3395dc43a0531f8484b21c2462daf4de

Polymarket

Worse than the odds Check it on Polymarket ↗
Profit
−$93K
return −2.3%
Settled bets
228
$4.13M staked
Won
82.5%
95% range 77%–87%
Mostly bets on
other

Skill or luck? Worse than the odds. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 222 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Aug 20 – Sep 4: −$93K Sep 4 – Sep 20: −$22K Sep 20 – Oct 5: +$22K
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0% (2,053 positions).

Latest captured bets

WhenBetMarketSize
Oct 7 Bought San Diego Padres at 85¢
Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Diego Padres
Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Diego Padres $9.3K
Oct 7 Bought San Diego Padres at 84¢
Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Diego Padres
Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Diego Padres $1.7K
Oct 7 Bought Los Angeles Dodgers at 88¢
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta Braves
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta Braves $6.7K
Oct 6 Bought No at 97¢
Will Czechia win on 2026-10-06?
Will Czechia win on 2026-10-06? $6.8K
Oct 6 Bought No at 97¢
Will Czechia win on 2026-10-06?
Will Czechia win on 2026-10-06? $3.4K
Oct 6 Bought No at 97¢
Will Czechia win on 2026-10-06?
Will Czechia win on 2026-10-06? $2.9K
Oct 6 Bought No at 92¢
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series?
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? $5.9K
Oct 6 Bought Lakers at 99¢
Lakers vs. Kings
Lakers vs. Kings $1.0K

Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.

Source: hopium_compute run 1791223421 (PG metrics_*) · computed 2026-10-05 18:03 UTC
  • Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
  • Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
  • latest window has the most unresolved markets
  • Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
  • fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed