Wiry-Mirror

0xc1c7bb8761105f6d33fc8d71dec31b5688a0f0a7

Polymarket

Worse than the odds Check it on Polymarket ↗
Profit
−$25K
return −4.9%
Settled bets
82
$505K staked
Won
47.6%
95% range 37%–58%
Mostly bets on
esports

Skill or luck? Worse than the odds. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 42 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Aug 20 – Sep 4: +$31K Sep 4 – Sep 20: −$33K Sep 20 – Oct 5: −$22K
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0% (2,053 positions).

Latest captured bets

WhenBetMarketSize
Oct 7 Bought FlyQuest at 92¢
LoL: FlyQuest vs Shopify Rebellion - Game 1 Winner
LoL: FlyQuest vs Shopify Rebellion - Game 1 Winner $9.2K
Oct 7 Bought FlyQuest at 80¢
LoL: FlyQuest vs Shopify Rebellion - Game 1 Winner
LoL: FlyQuest vs Shopify Rebellion - Game 1 Winner $5.0K
Oct 7 Sold FlyQuest at 99.9¢
LoL: GAM Esports vs FlyQuest - Game 2 Winner
LoL: GAM Esports vs FlyQuest - Game 2 Winner $33K
Oct 7 Sold FlyQuest at 99.9¢
LoL: GAM Esports vs FlyQuest - Game 1 Winner
LoL: GAM Esports vs FlyQuest - Game 1 Winner $21K
Oct 6 Bought LGD Gaming at 87¢
LoL: JD Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner
LoL: JD Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner $4.3K
Oct 6 Bought LGD Gaming at 77¢
LoL: JD Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner
LoL: JD Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner $4.0K
Oct 6 Sold LGD Gaming at 99.9¢
LoL: JD Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner
LoL: JD Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner $19K
Oct 6 Sold Team Vitality at 99.9¢
LoL: Team Vitality vs RED Canids - Game 1 Winner
LoL: Team Vitality vs RED Canids - Game 1 Winner $11K

Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.

Source: hopium_compute run 1791223421 (PG metrics_*) · computed 2026-10-05 18:03 UTC
  • Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
  • Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
  • latest window has the most unresolved markets
  • Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
  • fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed