Plaintive-Killing-Survey
0xbbac81bb1c0e3ec89ea86f1067ecdbb93bc838d0
Plaintive-Killing-Survey: −$4.3K on 50 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 42% (95% range 29%–56%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Profit
−$4.3K
return −8.6%
Settled bets
50
$50K staked
Won
42.0%
95% range 29%–56%
Mostly bets on
sports
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 22 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by 2 weeks
- Aug 20 – Sep 4
- −$3.0K
- Sep 4 – Sep 20
- −$59
- Sep 20 – Oct 5
- −$1.3K
Settled profit in each two-week period since Aug 20. A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0%
(2,053 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 6 | SELL Omar Jasika
@ 91¢
Wuning 3: Omar Jasika vs Martin Borisiouk |
Wuning 3: Omar Jasika vs Martin Borisiouk | $1.2K |
| Sep 27 | SELL SMU
@ 99.9¢
Missouri State vs. SMU |
Missouri State vs. SMU | $2.3K |
| Sep 26 | BUY Notre Dame
@ 96¢
Notre Dame vs. Purdue |
Notre Dame vs. Purdue | $3.0K |
| Sep 26 | SELL Over
@ 99.9¢
Seattle Reign FC vs. Boston Legacy FC: O/U 1.5 |
Seattle Reign FC vs. Boston Legacy FC: O/U 1.5 | $4.0K |
| Sep 25 | SELL Oscar Brown
@ 88¢
M15 Baku: Karol Filar vs Oscar Brown |
M15 Baku: Karol Filar vs Oscar Brown | $1.4K |
| Sep 25 | BUY Xinyu Wang
@ 70¢
Singapore Open: Xinyu Wang vs Tatiana Prozorova |
Singapore Open: Xinyu Wang vs Tatiana Prozorova | $1.3K |
| Sep 25 | BUY Maja Chwalinska
@ 98¢
Singapore Open: Elise Mertens vs Maja Chwalinska |
Singapore Open: Elise Mertens vs Maja Chwalinska | $2.1K |
| Sep 25 | BUY Over
@ 95¢
Falcons vs. Packers: O/U 25.5 |
Falcons vs. Packers: O/U 25.5 | $1.1K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.