Villainous-Offense

0xb580b3480b139ec8732db38df63b3f5497b09ba2

Polymarket

Can't tell from luck Check it on Polymarket ↗

Villainous-Offense: +$2.8K on 13 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 85% (95% range 58%–96%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.

Profit
+$2.8K
return +9.0%
Settled bets
13
$32K staked
Won
84.6%
95% range 58%–96%
Mostly bets on
other

Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 12 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Profit by 2 weeks
Aug 20 – Sep 4
+$567
Sep 4 – Sep 20
+$1.4K
Sep 20 – Oct 5
+$924
Settled profit in each two-week period since Aug 20. A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0% (2,053 positions).

Latest captured bets

WhenBetMarketSize
Oct 9 BUY Team Spirit @ 69¢
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs $3.0K
Oct 3 BUY Yes @ 92¢
Will Spain win on 2026-10-03?
Will Spain win on 2026-10-03? $9.0K
Oct 1 BUY Yes @ 86¢
Will Greece vs. Netherlands end in a draw?
Will Greece vs. Netherlands end in a draw? $3.5K
Oct 1 BUY Team Yandex @ 88¢
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Group C
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Group C $1.1K
Sep 30 BUY Xtreme Gaming @ 85¢
Dota 2: Level UP vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Group A
Dota 2: Level UP vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Group A $1.4K
Sep 30 BUY PARIVISION @ 87¢
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Group A
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Group A $1.2K
Sep 30 BUY Team Yandex @ 94¢
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs MOUZ (BO3) - BLAST Slam Group C
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs MOUZ (BO3) - BLAST Slam Group C $1.2K
Sep 24 BUY Team Yandex @ 84¢
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs 1win (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs 1win (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs $1.0K

Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.

About this data · weekly run 1791223421, computed 2026-10-05 18:03 UTC
Source: hopium_compute run 1791223421 (PG metrics_*)
  • Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
  • Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
  • latest window has the most unresolved markets
  • Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
  • fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed