Total-Cover-Author
0xb13268eb47396af4f2e7ff91ed374f9026e16b5e
Total-Cover-Author: −$58K on 188 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 38% (95% range 32%–45%). Skill or luck: worse than the odds.
Profit
−$58K
return −18.3%
Settled bets
188
$317K staked
Won
38.3%
95% range 32%–45%
Mostly bets on
other
Skill or luck? Worse than the odds. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 85 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by period
- Aug 20 – Sep 6
- −$24K
- Sep 6 – Sep 23
- −$16K
- Sep 23 – Oct 11
- −$17K
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −9.2%
(2,094 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11 | SELL Team Spirit
@ 32¢
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs PARIVISION - Game 1 Winner |
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs PARIVISION - Game 1 Winner | $3.9K |
| Oct 10 | BUY PARIVISION
@ 88¢
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner |
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner | $2.6K |
| Oct 10 | BUY Team Spirit
@ 68¢
Game Handicap: TY (-1.5) vs Team Spirit (+1.5) |
Game Handicap: TY (-1.5) vs Team Spirit (+1.5) | $3.9K |
| Oct 10 | BUY Team Spirit
@ 67¢
Game Handicap: TY (-1.5) vs Team Spirit (+1.5) |
Game Handicap: TY (-1.5) vs Team Spirit (+1.5) | $5.5K |
| Oct 9 | SELL PARIVISION
@ 96¢
Dota 2: 1win vs PARIVISION (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs |
Dota 2: 1win vs PARIVISION (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs | $3.3K |
| Oct 9 | SELL PARIVISION
@ 94¢
Dota 2: 1win vs PARIVISION - Game 2 Winner |
Dota 2: 1win vs PARIVISION - Game 2 Winner | $5.6K |
| Oct 9 | BUY PARIVISION
@ 72¢
Dota 2: 1win vs PARIVISION - Game 2 Winner |
Dota 2: 1win vs PARIVISION - Game 2 Winner | $2.7K |
| Oct 9 | BUY FURIA
@ 41¢
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner |
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner | $1.2K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.