Recent-Tophat-Analogue
0xae9508c5623b068b7e81f050c359b87a079317b8
Recent-Tophat-Analogue: −$41K on 10 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 70% (95% range 40%–89%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Profit
−$41K
return −39.8%
Settled bets
10
$103K staked
Won
70.0%
95% range 40%–89%
Mostly bets on
sports
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 9 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by period
- Sep 6 – Sep 23
- −$15K
- Sep 23 – Oct 11
- −$26K
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −9.2%
(2,094 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 7 | BUY Marin Cilic
@ 40¢
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Arthur Fery vs Marin Cilic |
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Arthur Fery vs Marin Cilic | $4.3K |
| Oct 7 | BUY Anna Yang
@ 40¢
W15 Maanshan: Anna Yang vs Darja Suvirdjonkova |
W15 Maanshan: Anna Yang vs Darja Suvirdjonkova | $1.3K |
| Oct 7 | BUY Anna Yang
@ 53¢
W15 Maanshan: Anna Yang vs Darja Suvirdjonkova |
W15 Maanshan: Anna Yang vs Darja Suvirdjonkova | $1.9K |
| Oct 6 | BUY Lorenzo Giustino
@ 70¢
Palermo: Christian Langmo vs Lorenzo Giustino |
Palermo: Christian Langmo vs Lorenzo Giustino | $4.9K |
| Sep 30 | BUY Ha Yoon Son
@ 39¢
W15 Maanshan: Ha Yoon Son vs Darja Suvirdjonkova |
W15 Maanshan: Ha Yoon Son vs Darja Suvirdjonkova | $2.3K |
| Sep 28 | BUY Andrea Fiorentini
@ 81¢
M15 Telavi: Andrea Fiorentini vs Artur Kukasian |
M15 Telavi: Andrea Fiorentini vs Artur Kukasian | $1.6K |
| Sep 28 | SELL Artur Kukasian
@ 58¢
M15 Telavi: Andrea Fiorentini vs Artur Kukasian |
M15 Telavi: Andrea Fiorentini vs Artur Kukasian | $4.0K |
| Sep 28 | BUY Federico Arnaboldi
@ 81¢
Bari: Federico Arnaboldi vs Svyatoslav Gulin |
Bari: Federico Arnaboldi vs Svyatoslav Gulin | $13K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.