Whopping-Anesthesiology

0xaad03b403c831d0a8b484abe59ac25188b49f61d

Skill vs luck

Whopping-Anesthesiology on Polymarket: 112 settled bets · won 82% (95% range 74%–88%) · profit −$9.1K. Skill vs luck: can't be told from luck. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned +3.8% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Nov 1, 2026.

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Cite: Hopium Games, “Whopping-Anesthesiology: Polymarket record”, as of Nov 1, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0xaad03b403c831d0a8b484abe59ac25188b49f61d. Data CC BY 4.0.

Polymarket

Can't tell from luck Check it on Polymarket ↗

Whopping-Anesthesiology: −$9.1K on 112 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 82% (95% range 74%–88%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.

Profit

−$9.1K

return −3.2%

Settled bets

112

$281K staked

Won

82.1%

95% range 74%–88%

Mostly bets on

crypto

Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 95 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Profit by period

Aug 20 – Sep 3: −$1.2K
Sep 3 – Sep 18: −$1.7K
Sep 18 – Oct 3: −$4.7K
Oct 3 – Oct 17: −$1.7K
Oct 17 – Nov 1: +$214

Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.

Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made +3.8% (2,670 positions).

Latest captured bets

When	Bet	Market	Size
Oct 31	BUY No @ 99.1¢ Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in October?	Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in October? ↗	$8.0K
Oct 29	BUY No @ 99.1¢ Will Bitcoin dip to $79,000 on October 28?	Will Bitcoin dip to $79,000 on October 28?	$4.0K
Oct 29	SELL No @ 99.52¢ Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in October?	Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in October? ↗	$4.0K
Oct 27	BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 27?	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 27?	$1.6K
Oct 27	BUY Up @ 99.9¢ Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET	$1.5K
Oct 27	BUY Up @ 99.8¢ Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET	$2.7K
Oct 27	BUY No @ 99.6¢ Will Bitcoin dip to $79,000 on October 26?	Will Bitcoin dip to $79,000 on October 26?	$4.9K
Oct 27	BUY No @ 99.5¢ Will Bitcoin dip to $79,000 on October 26?	Will Bitcoin dip to $79,000 on October 26?	$4.9K

Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.

About this data · run 1793516413, computed 2026-11-01 07:00 UTC

Source: hopium_compute run 1793516413 (PG metrics_*)

Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
latest window has the most unresolved markets
Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed