Acceptable-Weather
0xa8a1b285090a97de8901ac8079d20d202e492974
Acceptable-Weather: −$2.2K on 15 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 40% (95% range 20%–64%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Profit
−$2.2K
return −6.3%
Settled bets
15
$35K staked
Won
40.0%
95% range 20%–64%
Mostly bets on
esports
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 12 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by 2 weeks
- Aug 20 – Sep 4
- −$14K
- Sep 4 – Sep 20
- +$217
- Sep 20 – Oct 5
- +$11K
Settled profit in each two-week period since Aug 20. A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0%
(2,053 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 3 | BUY Alina Charaeva
@ 22¢
China Open: Elena Rybakina vs Alina Charaeva |
China Open: Elena Rybakina vs Alina Charaeva | $2.2K |
| Oct 3 | SELL Xinyu Wang
@ 22¢
China Open: Sonay Kartal vs Xinyu Wang |
China Open: Sonay Kartal vs Xinyu Wang | $1.9K |
| Sep 30 | SELL Melisa Ercan
@ 58¢
Adana: Leolia Jeanjean vs Melisa Ercan |
Adana: Leolia Jeanjean vs Melisa Ercan | $1.8K |
| Sep 6 | BUY Alexandra Eala
@ 30¢
US Open WTA: Iva Jovic vs Alexandra Eala |
US Open WTA: Iva Jovic vs Alexandra Eala | $2.0K |
| Sep 5 | BUY Yes
@ 40¢
Will Stade Brestois 29 win on 2026-09-05? |
Will Stade Brestois 29 win on 2026-09-05? | $1.4K |
| Aug 30 | BUY Dplus KIA
@ 56¢
LoL: Dplus KIA vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner |
LoL: Dplus KIA vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner | $3.9K |
| Aug 30 | BUY Dplus KIA
@ 57¢
LoL: Dplus KIA vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner |
LoL: Dplus KIA vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner | $1.7K |
| Aug 29 | BUY Yes
@ 42¢
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-08-29? |
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-08-29? | $4.3K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.