Ornate-Counterpart-Frog

0xa29ab0e033f66cc043371a7396e5eb6cf56d9a97

Polymarket

Too few bets Check it on Polymarket ↗

Ornate-Counterpart-Frog: +$183 on 23 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 26% (95% range 13%–47%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.

Profit
+$183
return +0.9%
Settled bets
23
$20K staked
Won
26.1%
95% range 13%–47%
Mostly bets on
other

Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 9 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Profit by period
Sep 6 – Sep 23
−$320
Sep 23 – Oct 11
+$503
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −9.2% (2,094 positions).

Latest captured bets

WhenBetMarketSize
Oct 9 BUY Team Falcons @ 42¢
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Spirit (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffs
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Spirit (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffs $1.9K
Oct 9 SELL Team Spirit @ 99.9¢
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs $1.1K
Oct 6 SELL Natus Vincere @ 99.9¢
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Natus Vincere - Map 2 Winner
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Natus Vincere - Map 2 Winner $1.0K
Oct 6 SELL Aurora Gaming @ 99.9¢
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage $2.9K
Oct 6 BUY Team Falcons @ 58¢
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage $3.0K
Oct 6 BUY Aurora Gaming @ 51¢
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage $2.3K
Oct 5 SELL Vitality @ 99.9¢
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage $1.5K
Oct 5 SELL MOUZ @ 99.9¢
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MOUZ (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MOUZ (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage $4.9K

Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.

About this data · run 1791710133, computed 2026-10-11 09:15 UTC
Source: hopium_compute run 1791710133 (PG metrics_*)
  • Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
  • Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
  • latest window has the most unresolved markets
  • Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
  • fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed