Extraneous-Incubation
Skill vs luck
Extraneous-Incubation on Polymarket: 5 settled bets · won 40% (95% range 12%–77%) · profit +$686. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −0.2% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Nov 4, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Extraneous-Incubation: Polymarket record”, as of Nov 4, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x9d8c906108696d3e207a8ad378e613624c942799. Data CC BY 4.0.
Extraneous-Incubation: +$686 on 5 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 40% (95% range 12%–77%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 5 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Oct 20 – Nov 4
- +$686
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2 | BUY Seahawks @ 62¢ | Bears vs. Seahawks ↗ | $3.2K |
| Nov 2 | BUY Natus Vincere @ 46¢ | Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Beijing Group A ↗ | $1.1K |
| Nov 1 | BUY Steelers @ 65¢ | Browns vs. Steelers ↗ | $11K |
| Nov 1 | BUY Eagles @ 53¢ | Spread: Commanders (-6.5) ↗ | $1.4K |
| Oct 24 | BUY Troy
@ 53¢
Spread: Troy (-11.5) |
Spread: Troy (-11.5) | $1.8K |
| Oct 22 | SELL Fabian Marozsan
@ 50¢
Almaty Open: Alexander Bublik vs Fabian Marozsan |
Almaty Open: Alexander Bublik vs Fabian Marozsan | $4.3K |
All 6 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.