Plush-Dirt
0x9d699c315b662a161e763a3c4c954408a048ab3a
Plush-Dirt: −$11K on 27 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 93% (95% range 77%–98%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Profit
−$11K
return −10.0%
Settled bets
27
$109K staked
Won
92.6%
95% range 77%–98%
Mostly bets on
crypto
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 27 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by period
- Aug 20 – Sep 6
- −$1.1K
- Sep 6 – Sep 23
- −$9.8K
- Sep 23 – Oct 11
- +$2
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −9.2%
(2,094 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9 | BUY Yes
@ 99.9¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on October 9? |
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on October 9? | $2.1K |
| Sep 23 | BUY Yes
@ 99.9¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on September 23? |
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on September 23? | $1.1K |
| Sep 22 | BUY Yes
@ 99.9¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on September 22? |
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on September 22? | $2.4K |
| Sep 18 | BUY No
@ 99.9¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on September 18? |
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on September 18? | $10K |
| Sep 17 | BUY No
@ 99.6¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on September 17? |
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on September 17? | $2.9K |
| Sep 17 | BUY No
@ 99.3¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on September 17? |
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on September 17? | $1.8K |
| Sep 15 | BUY No
@ 99.7¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on September 15? |
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on September 15? | $3.5K |
| Sep 13 | BUY No
@ 99¢
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in September? |
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in September? | $1.8K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.