Minor-Donut-Candelabra
0x9c68e5a4b3004bf6ac9d6735a33ffb5f983a247a
Minor-Donut-Candelabra: −$83K on 80 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 35% (95% range 26%–46%). Skill or luck: worse than the odds.
Profit
−$83K
return −16.1%
Settled bets
80
$513K staked
Won
35.0%
95% range 26%–46%
Mostly bets on
sports
Skill or luck? Worse than the odds. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 53 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by 2 weeks
- Sep 4 – Sep 20
- −$17K
- Sep 20 – Oct 5
- −$66K
Settled profit in each two-week period since Aug 20. A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0%
(2,053 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2 | BUY Frances Tiafoe
@ 29¢
Japan Open Tennis Championships: Arthur Fils vs Frances Tiafoe |
Japan Open Tennis Championships: Arthur Fils vs Frances Tiafoe | $8.8K |
| Oct 2 | BUY Sijia Wei
@ 26¢
Jingshan: Alexandra Shubladze vs Sijia Wei |
Jingshan: Alexandra Shubladze vs Sijia Wei | $5.6K |
| Oct 2 | BUY Sijia Wei
@ 30¢
Jingshan: Alexandra Shubladze vs Sijia Wei |
Jingshan: Alexandra Shubladze vs Sijia Wei | $2.3K |
| Oct 2 | SELL Ekaterina Alexandrova
@ 82¢
China Open: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Aliaksandra Sasnovich |
China Open: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Aliaksandra Sasnovich | $11K |
| Oct 2 | BUY Ekaterina Alexandrova
@ 64¢
China Open: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Aliaksandra Sasnovich |
China Open: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Aliaksandra Sasnovich | $5.0K |
| Oct 1 | BUY Rafael Jodar
@ 40¢
Japan Open Tennis Championships: Adolfo Vallejo vs Rafael Jodar |
Japan Open Tennis Championships: Adolfo Vallejo vs Rafael Jodar | $5.2K |
| Oct 1 | BUY Alycia Parks
@ 28¢
China Open: Alycia Parks vs Lin Zhu |
China Open: Alycia Parks vs Lin Zhu | $8.9K |
| Oct 1 | SELL Juncheng Shang
@ 99.9¢
China Open: Juncheng Shang vs Sebastian Baez |
China Open: Juncheng Shang vs Sebastian Baez | $9.3K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.