Creamy-Switch-Fish
Skill vs luck
Creamy-Switch-Fish on Polymarket: 1 settled bet · won 100% (95% range 21%–100%) · profit +$707. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned +0.2% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Nov 3, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Creamy-Switch-Fish: Polymarket record”, as of Nov 3, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x994161bddd2fc4bd4d699b4e5288db6ef9bf55a5. Data CC BY 4.0.
Creamy-Switch-Fish: +$707 on 1 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 100% (95% range 21%–100%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 1 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Oct 19 – Nov 3
- +$707
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2 | BUY No @ 95¢ | 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House ↗ | $16K |
| Oct 28 | BUY No @ 96¢ | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? ↗ | $1.5K |
| Oct 28 | BUY No @ 96¢ | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? ↗ | $1.2K |
| Oct 28 | BUY No @ 95¢ | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? ↗ | $1.9K |
| Oct 27 | BUY No @ 94¢ | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? ↗ | $7.6K |
| Sep 30 | BUY No
@ 90¢
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027? |
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027? | $10K |
| Sep 15 | BUY No @ 95¢ | Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? ↗ | $20K |
All 7 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.