Spectacular-Failure
0x9453a389c73df7991249d9f2c6e2c854157b1a48
Spectacular-Failure: +$1.4K on 4 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 50% (95% range 15%–85%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Profit
+$1.4K
return +45.1%
Settled bets
4
$3.2K staked
Won
50.0%
95% range 15%–85%
Mostly bets on
other
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 2 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by 2 weeks
- Aug 20 – Sep 4
- −$42
- Sep 20 – Oct 5
- +$1.5K
Settled profit in each two-week period since Aug 20. A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0%
(2,053 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9 | SELL No
@ 99.9¢
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? |
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | $2.7K |
| Oct 9 | SELL No
@ 95¢
Saudi troops fighting in Yemen by October 17, 2026? |
Saudi troops fighting in Yemen by October 17, 2026? | $1.3K |
| Oct 5 | SELL No
@ 65¢
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 15? |
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 15? | $1.9K |
| Oct 4 | SELL No
@ 95¢
Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31? |
Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31? | $1.6K |
| Oct 4 | SELL No
@ 65¢
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 15? |
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 15? | $3.2K |
| Sep 23 | BUY No
@ 52¢
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30? |
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30? | $1.6K |
| Sep 2 | BUY Yes
@ 99.29¢
Will Iran target Bahrain by September 15, 2026? |
Will Iran target Bahrain by September 15, 2026? | $1.6K |
| Sep 2 | SELL No
@ 99.7¢
Will Tropical Storm Saudel make landfall in Japan? |
Will Tropical Storm Saudel make landfall in Japan? | $1.9K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.