Runny-Printing-Referendum

0x932935dca799836a6d11dc9cd03372eea3bf035d

Polymarket

Too few bets Check it on Polymarket ↗

Runny-Printing-Referendum: −$11K on 4 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 25% (95% range 5%–70%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.

Profit
−$11K
return −62.6%
Settled bets
4
$17K staked
Won
25.0%
95% range 5%–70%
Mostly bets on
sports

Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 4 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Profit by period
Aug 20 – Sep 6
−$14K
Sep 24 – Oct 12
+$3.6K
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −10.9% (2,374 positions).

Latest captured bets

WhenBetMarketSize
Oct 11 BUY Yes @ 45¢
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-10-11?
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-10-11? $2.9K
Sep 5 BUY Yes @ 65¢
Will Villarreal CF vs. RC Deportivo A Coruña end in a draw?
Will Villarreal CF vs. RC Deportivo A Coruña end in a draw? $4.2K
Aug 24 BUY Sebastian Gorzny @ 63¢
Winston-Salem Open: Sebastian Gorzny vs Cruz Hewitt
Winston-Salem Open: Sebastian Gorzny vs Cruz Hewitt $7.9K
Aug 21 BUY Taylor Fritz @ 63¢
Cincinnati Open: Taylor Fritz vs Brandon Nakashima
Cincinnati Open: Taylor Fritz vs Brandon Nakashima $2.4K

All 4 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.

About this data · run 1791788420, computed 2026-10-12 07:00 UTC
Source: hopium_compute run 1791788420 (PG metrics_*)
  • Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
  • Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
  • latest window has the most unresolved markets
  • Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
  • fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed