Solid-Airfare
Skill vs luck
Solid-Airfare on Polymarket: 4 settled bets · won 75% (95% range 30%–95%) · profit +$7.8K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned +0.2% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Nov 3, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Solid-Airfare: Polymarket record”, as of Nov 3, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x8c66e28fbe7ede7f57ba6cbc70408dff442944f3. Data CC BY 4.0.
Solid-Airfare: +$7.8K on 4 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 75% (95% range 30%–95%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 3 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Sep 4 – Sep 19
- +$3.9K
- Sep 19 – Oct 4
- +$2.1K
- Oct 4 – Oct 19
- +$1.8K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16 | BUY Yes @ 87¢ | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? ↗ | $3.5K |
| Oct 16 | BUY Yes @ 87¢ | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? ↗ | $2.6K |
| Oct 16 | SELL No @ 88¢ | Iran leadership change by December 31? ↗ | $4.4K |
| Oct 16 | BUY Yes @ 87¢ | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? ↗ | $6.1K |
| Oct 1 | SELL No @ 23¢ | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? ↗ | $2.1K |
| Sep 16 | BUY No @ 48¢ | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? ↗ | $2.4K |
| Sep 12 | BUY No @ 93¢ | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31? ↗ | $1.4K |
| Sep 12 | BUY Yes @ 79¢ | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? ↗ | $24K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.