Expert-Statement
0x88c3fcdca5c1a4afbcc6352ba3a50123d17dbea3
Expert-Statement: +$35K on 52 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 62% (95% range 48%–74%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Profit
+$35K
return +15.6%
Settled bets
52
$227K staked
Won
61.5%
95% range 48%–74%
Mostly bets on
esports
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 49 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by period
- Aug 20 – Sep 6
- +$41K
- Sep 6 – Sep 23
- +$4.0K
- Sep 23 – Oct 11
- −$9.5K
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −9.2%
(2,094 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9 | BUY PARIVISION
@ 77¢
Dota 2: 1win vs PARIVISION - Game 1 Winner |
Dota 2: 1win vs PARIVISION - Game 1 Winner | $2.4K |
| Oct 9 | BUY PARIVISION
@ 74¢
Dota 2: 1win vs PARIVISION - Game 1 Winner |
Dota 2: 1win vs PARIVISION - Game 1 Winner | $3.6K |
| Oct 9 | BUY Aurora
@ 45¢
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner |
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner | $5.4K |
| Oct 9 | SELL Team Spirit
@ 99.9¢
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner |
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner | $5.6K |
| Oct 8 | BUY PARIVISION
@ 61¢
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs |
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs | $1.2K |
| Oct 8 | BUY PARIVISION
@ 56¢
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner |
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner | $4.1K |
| Oct 8 | BUY Team Yandex
@ 73¢
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner |
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner | $2.0K |
| Oct 3 | BUY 1win
@ 60¢
Dota 2: 1win vs OG (BO3) - BLAST Slam Last Chance Qualifier |
Dota 2: 1win vs OG (BO3) - BLAST Slam Last Chance Qualifier | $2.0K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.