Foolish-Mezzanine

0x866056133a70de9282a080758858d1a0c8b393ed

Polymarket

Can't tell from luck Check it on Polymarket ↗
Profit
−$21K
return −10.9%
Settled bets
26
$191K staked
Won
46.2%
95% range 29%–65%
Mostly bets on
esports

Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 26 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Aug 20 – Sep 4: +$16K Sep 4 – Sep 20: +$334 Sep 20 – Oct 5: −$38K
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0% (2,053 positions).

Latest captured bets

WhenBetMarketSize
Oct 4 Bought Chargers at 54¢
Spread: Seahawks (-7.5)
Spread: Seahawks (-7.5) $10K
Oct 4 Bought Jets at 51¢
Spread: Bears (-3.5)
Spread: Bears (-3.5) $10K
Oct 4 Bought Cardinals at 50¢
Spread: Cardinals (-2.5)
Spread: Cardinals (-2.5) $10K
Oct 3 Bought Imanol Rodriguez at 57¢
UFC 332: Alden Coria vs. Imanol Rodriguez (Flyweight, Prelims)
UFC 332: Alden Coria vs. Imanol Rodriguez (Flyweight, Prelims) $3.4K
Oct 3 Bought Colorado State at 55¢
Spread: Oregon State (-7.5)
Spread: Oregon State (-7.5) $8.5K
Oct 3 Bought USC at 50¢
Spread: USC (-7.5)
Spread: USC (-7.5) $5.0K
Sep 26 Bought Rinya Nakamura at 77¢
UFC Fight Night: Brady Hiestand vs. Rinya Nakamura (Bantamweight, Main Card)
UFC Fight Night: Brady Hiestand vs. Rinya Nakamura (Bantamweight, Main Card) $12K
Sep 26 Bought Mehemmedeli Osmanli at 73¢
UFC Fight Night: Ilimbek Akylbek Uulu vs. Mehemmedeli Osmanli (Bantamweight, Main Card)
UFC Fight Night: Ilimbek Akylbek Uulu vs. Mehemmedeli Osmanli (Bantamweight, Main Card) $3.8K

Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.

Source: hopium_compute run 1791223421 (PG metrics_*) · computed 2026-10-05 18:03 UTC
  • Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
  • Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
  • latest window has the most unresolved markets
  • Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
  • fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed