Vibrant-Kind

0x8604775b43acf7bbb5ed0f4c5346a6867080fd3a

Polymarket

Can't tell from luck Check it on Polymarket ↗

Vibrant-Kind: −$3.9K on 29 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 93% (95% range 78%–98%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.

Profit
−$3.9K
return −4.1%
Settled bets
29
$96K staked
Won
93.1%
95% range 78%–98%
Mostly bets on
sports

Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 27 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Profit by 2 weeks
Aug 20 – Sep 4
+$628
Sep 4 – Sep 20
−$4.8K
Sep 20 – Oct 5
+$313
Settled profit in each two-week period since Aug 20. A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0% (2,053 positions).

Latest captured bets

WhenBetMarketSize
Oct 8 BUY Zhuoxuan Bai @ 99¢
Suzhou: Zhuoxuan Bai vs Emerson Jones
Suzhou: Zhuoxuan Bai vs Emerson Jones $1.1K
Oct 7 BUY Tahlia Kokkinis @ 97¢
W35 Wagga Wagga: Kanon Sawashiro vs Tahlia Kokkinis
W35 Wagga Wagga: Kanon Sawashiro vs Tahlia Kokkinis $3.6K
Oct 5 BUY Iva Jovic @ 99¢
China Open: Iva Jovic vs Kamilla Rakhimova
China Open: Iva Jovic vs Kamilla Rakhimova $11K
Oct 3 BUY Liberty @ 99.79¢
Liberty vs. Delaware
Liberty vs. Delaware $2.3K
Oct 1 BUY Samuele Pieri @ 99¢
Bari: Laurent Lokoli vs Samuele Pieri
Bari: Laurent Lokoli vs Samuele Pieri $4.8K
Oct 1 BUY Ashlyn Krueger @ 99¢
China Open: Sofia Kenin vs Ashlyn Krueger
China Open: Sofia Kenin vs Ashlyn Krueger $2.0K
Sep 30 BUY Maria Timofeeva @ 99.9¢
China Open: Darja Vidmanova vs Maria Timofeeva
China Open: Darja Vidmanova vs Maria Timofeeva $4.0K
Sep 29 SELL Zhuoxuan Bai @ 60¢
China Open, Qualification: Jiaqi Wang vs Zhuoxuan Bai
China Open, Qualification: Jiaqi Wang vs Zhuoxuan Bai $6.3K

Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.

About this data · weekly run 1791223421, computed 2026-10-05 18:03 UTC
Source: hopium_compute run 1791223421 (PG metrics_*)
  • Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
  • Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
  • latest window has the most unresolved markets
  • Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
  • fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed