Foolish-Cohort-Puritan

0x790e44a5056151c832ae0cbac71b249f0b6b55d6

Polymarket

Can't tell from luck Check it on Polymarket ↗

Foolish-Cohort-Puritan: +$82 on 22 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 68% (95% range 47%–84%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.

Profit
+$82
return +0.1%
Settled bets
22
$81K staked
Won
68.2%
95% range 47%–84%
Mostly bets on
sports

Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 16 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Profit by period
Aug 20 – Sep 6
+$50
Sep 6 – Sep 23
−$24
Sep 23 – Oct 11
+$55
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −9.2% (2,094 positions).

Latest captured bets

WhenBetMarketSize
Oct 1 BUY Felix Balshaw @ 98¢
Mouilleron-Le-Captif: Felix Balshaw vs Nicolai Budkov Kjaer
Mouilleron-Le-Captif: Felix Balshaw vs Nicolai Budkov Kjaer $2.7K
Sep 23 BUY Henry Searle @ 99¢
San Diego 2: Henry Searle vs Liam Draxl
San Diego 2: Henry Searle vs Liam Draxl $3.0K
Sep 21 BUY Noemi Basiletti @ 99¢
Tolentino: Laura Samson vs Noemi Basiletti
Tolentino: Laura Samson vs Noemi Basiletti $2.4K
Sep 19 BUY Darwin Blanch @ 98¢
Tiburon: Michael Zheng vs Darwin Blanch
Tiburon: Michael Zheng vs Darwin Blanch $1.0K
Sep 17 BUY Sebastian Gorzny @ 94¢
Tiburon: Sebastian Gorzny vs Nishesh Basavareddy
Tiburon: Sebastian Gorzny vs Nishesh Basavareddy $13K
Sep 16 BUY Hunter Heck @ 99¢
Phan Thiet 4: Hunter Heck vs Luka Pavlovic
Phan Thiet 4: Hunter Heck vs Luka Pavlovic $13K
Sep 11 BUY Matej Dodig @ 99¢
Genoa: Matej Dodig vs Enrico Dalla Valle
Genoa: Matej Dodig vs Enrico Dalla Valle $14K
Sep 10 BUY Filip Peliwo @ 98¢
Phan Thiet 3: Kenta Miyoshi vs Filip Peliwo
Phan Thiet 3: Kenta Miyoshi vs Filip Peliwo $1.2K

Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.

About this data · run 1791710133, computed 2026-10-11 09:15 UTC
Source: hopium_compute run 1791710133 (PG metrics_*)
  • Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
  • Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
  • latest window has the most unresolved markets
  • Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
  • fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed