Tender-Likelihood
0x77e7c5653d80e7428fc448676369f324746888ad
Tender-Likelihood: −$4.5K on 47 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 92% (95% range 80%–97%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Profit
−$4.5K
return −3.5%
Settled bets
47
$129K staked
Won
91.5%
95% range 80%–97%
Mostly bets on
crypto
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 44 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by period
- Aug 20 – Sep 6
- −$3.4K
- Sep 6 – Sep 23
- −$1.3K
- Sep 23 – Oct 11
- +$282
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −9.2%
(2,094 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10 | BUY Yes
@ 99.8¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on October 10? |
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on October 10? | $1.2K |
| Oct 9 | SELL Yes
@ 99.9¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 9? |
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 9? | $1.2K |
| Oct 9 | SELL Yes
@ 99.9¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 9? |
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 9? | $1.4K |
| Oct 9 | BUY Yes
@ 99.8¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 9? |
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 9? | $1.8K |
| Oct 9 | BUY No
@ 99.6¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on October 9? |
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on October 9? | $1.0K |
| Oct 8 | BUY No
@ 99.8¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on October 8? |
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on October 8? | $1.2K |
| Oct 8 | SELL Yes
@ 99.9¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on October 8? |
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on October 8? | $3.5K |
| Oct 8 | SELL No
@ 99.9¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on October 8? |
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on October 8? | $6.6K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.