Carefree-Chemical

0x779c5f0999618876a44fe93c9e737f39500c7488

Polymarket

Too few bets Check it on Polymarket ↗

Carefree-Chemical: −$1.5K on 9 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 56% (95% range 27%–81%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.

Profit
−$1.5K
return −16.2%
Settled bets
9
$9.5K staked
Won
55.6%
95% range 27%–81%
Mostly bets on
other

Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 6 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Profit by period
Aug 20 – Sep 6
+$970
Sep 6 – Sep 23
−$3
Sep 23 – Oct 11
−$2.5K
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −9.2% (2,094 positions).

Latest captured bets

WhenBetMarketSize
Oct 7 BUY Natus Vincere @ 69¢
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage $1.5K
Oct 5 BUY Aurora Gaming @ 68¢
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage $1.0K
Oct 3 SELL FURIA @ 70¢
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage $1.7K
Oct 3 BUY FURIA @ 69¢
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage $1.5K
Oct 3 SELL G2 @ 58¢
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage $1.6K
Oct 3 BUY G2 @ 55¢
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage $1.5K
Oct 3 BUY Aurora Gaming @ 68¢
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage $1.4K
Sep 9 SELL No @ 99.9¢
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Men's US Open?
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Men's US Open? $3.0K

Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.

About this data · run 1791710133, computed 2026-10-11 09:15 UTC
Source: hopium_compute run 1791710133 (PG metrics_*)
  • Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
  • Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
  • latest window has the most unresolved markets
  • Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
  • fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed