Unwelcome-Opening-Sultan
Skill vs luck
Unwelcome-Opening-Sultan on Polymarket: 4 settled bets · won 25% (95% range 5%–70%) · profit +$759. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned +2.1% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 31, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Unwelcome-Opening-Sultan: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 31, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x76b32a7511ae9482f297b3bff5770bbbd000b511. Data CC BY 4.0.
Unwelcome-Opening-Sultan: +$759 on 4 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 25% (95% range 5%–70%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 2 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Oct 16 – Oct 31
- +$759
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 30 | SELL Over
@ 99.9¢
FC Energie Cottbus vs. VfL Bochum: O/U 2.5 |
FC Energie Cottbus vs. VfL Bochum: O/U 2.5 | $1.9K |
| Oct 30 | BUY Holger Rune @ 51¢ | Swiss Indoors Basel: Holger Rune vs Valentin Vacherot ↗ | $1.5K |
| Oct 30 | BUY Frantzen/Haase
@ 42¢
Swiss Indoors Basel (Doubles): Frantzen/Haase vs Cash/Glasspool |
Swiss Indoors Basel (Doubles): Frantzen/Haase vs Cash/Glasspool | $1.6K |
| Oct 30 | SELL
@ 74¢
Guangzhou Open: Xinran Sun vs Claire Liu AND Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-10-30? |
Guangzhou Open: Xinran Sun vs Claire Liu AND Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-10-30? | $1.7K |
| Oct 30 | SELL Xinran Sun @ 99.9¢ | Guangzhou Open: Xinran Sun vs Claire Liu ↗ | $4.4K |
All 5 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.