Forked-Settler
0x74b75e8436613e36fac0e007a01dfd33753d8b0b
Forked-Settler: −$27K on 68 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 47% (95% range 36%–59%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Profit
−$27K
return −19.8%
Settled bets
68
$136K staked
Won
47.1%
95% range 36%–59%
Mostly bets on
other
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 42 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by 2 weeks
- Aug 20 – Sep 4
- +$357
- Sep 4 – Sep 20
- −$18K
- Sep 20 – Oct 5
- −$9.1K
Settled profit in each two-week period since Aug 20. A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0%
(2,053 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9 | BUY Team Falcons
@ 42¢
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner |
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner | $1.3K |
| Oct 5 | BUY FlyQuest
@ 93¢
LoL: Natus Vincere vs FlyQuest - Game 1 Winner |
LoL: Natus Vincere vs FlyQuest - Game 1 Winner | $1.4K |
| Oct 5 | BUY FlyQuest
@ 93¢
LoL: Natus Vincere vs FlyQuest - Game 1 Winner |
LoL: Natus Vincere vs FlyQuest - Game 1 Winner | $2.1K |
| Oct 5 | SELL Team Vitality
@ 99.9¢
LoL: GAM Esports vs Team Vitality - Game 2 Winner |
LoL: GAM Esports vs Team Vitality - Game 2 Winner | $6.7K |
| Oct 5 | SELL Team Vitality
@ 99.9¢
LoL: GAM Esports vs Team Vitality - Game 1 Winner |
LoL: GAM Esports vs Team Vitality - Game 1 Winner | $8.3K |
| Oct 4 | BUY LYON
@ 52¢
LoL: Team Liquid vs LYON - Game 1 Winner |
LoL: Team Liquid vs LYON - Game 1 Winner | $1.2K |
| Oct 4 | BUY Vitality
@ 70¢
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Natus Vincere - Map 2 Winner |
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Natus Vincere - Map 2 Winner | $2.5K |
| Oct 4 | BUY Vitality
@ 97¢
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Natus Vincere - Map 1 Winner |
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Natus Vincere - Map 1 Winner | $1.1K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.