Lustrous-Feed

0x722abb5460060870d46728bf45f66a6b1635d6ed

Polymarket

Can't tell from luck Check it on Polymarket ↗

Lustrous-Feed: −$2.6K on 45 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 49% (95% range 35%–63%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.

Profit
−$2.6K
return −3.8%
Settled bets
45
$69K staked
Won
48.9%
95% range 35%–63%
Mostly bets on
sports

Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 22 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Profit by 2 weeks
Sep 4 – Sep 20
−$2.3K
Sep 20 – Oct 5
−$384
Settled profit in each two-week period since Aug 20. A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0% (2,053 positions).

Latest captured bets

WhenBetMarketSize
Oct 9 SELL Yes @ 88¢
Will SK Slavia Praha win on 2026-10-09?
Will SK Slavia Praha win on 2026-10-09? $1.7K
Oct 9 BUY Yes @ 75¢
Will SK Slavia Praha win on 2026-10-09?
Will SK Slavia Praha win on 2026-10-09? $1.4K
Oct 9 SELL Yes @ 89¢
Will Pakhtakor win on 2026-10-09?
Will Pakhtakor win on 2026-10-09? $1.2K
Oct 9 BUY Yes @ 76¢
Will Al Qadisiyah Saudi Club win on 2026-10-10?
Will Al Qadisiyah Saudi Club win on 2026-10-10? $1.1K
Oct 8 BUY Over @ 81¢
Kuopion Palloseura vs. AC Oulu: O/U 1.5
Kuopion Palloseura vs. AC Oulu: O/U 1.5 $1.0K
Oct 8 SELL Nikola Bartunkova @ 93¢
China Open: Karolina Muchova vs Nikola Bartunkova
China Open: Karolina Muchova vs Nikola Bartunkova $1.0K
Oct 7 BUY No @ 37¢
Will SC Internacional win on 2026-10-07?
Will SC Internacional win on 2026-10-07? $1.6K
Oct 6 SELL No @ 89¢
Will Croatia win on 2026-10-06?
Will Croatia win on 2026-10-06? $1.4K

Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.

About this data · weekly run 1791223421, computed 2026-10-05 18:03 UTC
Source: hopium_compute run 1791223421 (PG metrics_*)
  • Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
  • Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
  • latest window has the most unresolved markets
  • Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
  • fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed