Rewarding-Kangaroo
Skill vs luck
Rewarding-Kangaroo on Polymarket: 4 settled bets · won 50% (95% range 15%–85%) · profit −$8.9K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −0.2% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Nov 4, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Rewarding-Kangaroo: Polymarket record”, as of Nov 4, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x71ca04d689bc38c5e4dcda8a4d743f279c5a3501. Data CC BY 4.0.
Rewarding-Kangaroo: −$8.9K on 4 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 50% (95% range 15%–85%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 3 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Sep 4 – Sep 19
- +$5.5K
- Sep 19 – Oct 4
- +$665
- Oct 4 – Oct 20
- −$15K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2 | BUY Yes @ 92¢ | Will the Republicans win the Montana Senate race in 2026? ↗ | $1.0K |
| Nov 2 | BUY No @ 96¢ | 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House ↗ | $64K |
| Oct 30 | BUY No @ 94¢ | 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House ↗ | $15K |
| Oct 14 | SELL Yes @ 80¢ | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? ↗ | $1.7K |
| Oct 14 | SELL Yes @ 82¢ | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? ↗ | $5.2K |
| Oct 14 | SELL Yes @ 79¢ | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? ↗ | $8.8K |
| Oct 14 | SELL Yes @ 79¢ | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? ↗ | $2.5K |
| Oct 14 | SELL Yes @ 79¢ | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? ↗ | $8.8K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.