Pointed-Dose-Formamide
0x71246529fd8c3887724b178844ba1bb94defcc9c
Pointed-Dose-Formamide: −$22K on 76 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 29% (95% range 20%–40%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Profit
−$22K
return −21.4%
Settled bets
76
$102K staked
Won
28.9%
95% range 20%–40%
Mostly bets on
other
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 29 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by period
- Aug 20 – Sep 6
- −$30K
- Sep 6 – Sep 23
- +$13K
- Sep 23 – Oct 11
- −$4.2K
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −9.2%
(2,094 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 25 | BUY Down
@ 54¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 25, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET |
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 25, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET | $1.1K |
| Sep 25 | BUY Down
@ 55¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 25, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET |
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 25, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET | $1.2K |
| Sep 25 | SELL Natus Vincere
@ 99.9¢
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs |
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs | $6.0K |
| Sep 25 | SELL Team Nemesis
@ 26¢
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs |
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs | $1.1K |
| Sep 25 | BUY Team Nemesis
@ 31¢
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs |
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs | $3.1K |
| Sep 25 | SELL fnatic
@ 99.9¢
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs fnatic - Map 1 Winner |
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs fnatic - Map 1 Winner | $6.0K |
| Sep 25 | SELL Team Nemesis
@ 99.9¢
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner |
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner | $7.0K |
| Sep 25 | SELL Down
@ 90¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 25, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET |
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 25, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET | $1.2K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.